After a difficult year of 2022 on the markets, many asset classes saw rebounding performances in 2023. While the central banks' turnaround on interest rates ensured a “return to normality” on the bond market, the focus on the equity market was primarily on technology companies. In the Funds exclusive series, the fund managers of selected funds look back on developments of the previous year and give their assessment of what the markets could expect in 2024. (Note: Prognoses are not a reliable indicator of future performance.)

"We expect a soft landing for the economy in 2024 with a high degree of probability."

Gerhard Beulig, fund manager ERSTE SELECT BOND DYNAMIC

Fund & Performance

Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

ERSTE SELECT BOND DYNAMIC flexibly invests in different bond segments such as national and international government bonds, corporate bonds ("investment grade" and "high yield"), emerging market bonds in hard and local currency, as well as international mortgage bonds. The proportion of risky papers (rating worse than investment grade) with higher interest rates may not exceed 50%, the proportion of alternative investments may not exceed 10% of the total fund volume.

Performance since start of the fund. The performance is calculated in accordance with the OeKB method. The management fee as well as any performance-related remuneration is already included. The issue premium which might be applicable on purchase and as well as any individual transaction specific costs or ongoing costs that reduce earnings (e.g. account- and deposit fees) have not been taken into account in this presentation.

Commentary by fund manager Gerhard Beulig

How did the fund perform in 2023?

The fund performed relatively well at the beginning of the year in the wake of the general fall in yields, but then suffered losses again due to rising yields. The fund achieved a plus of 5.3% in 2023.

 

What was the focus of the fund in 2023?

The fund focussed on corporate bonds, both investment grade (i.e. good and very good credit rating) and in the high-yield rating segment. There was also a focus on emerging market bonds, convertible bonds, and funds pursuing absolute-return strategies. We complemented the portfolio with government bonds, particularly in the inflation-linked bond segment. Asian high-yield corporate bonds were a special theme and were added to a lesser extent.

 

What does the fund management team expect for 2024 in terms of global economy and trends?

We expect a soft landing for the economy in 2024 with a high degree of probability. The development of inflation, which we see continuing to fall, will be of crucial importance. This positive inflation trend will give central banks the opportunity to intervene by cutting interest rates to support the economy in the event of any weakness. The expected trend towards at least stable, but more likely falling key-lending rates will also provide positive input for the capital markets as a whole, but especially for the bond markets.

Note: Prognoses are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Commodity prices will tend to fall slightly in this scenario. China will continue to implement supportive measures and thus also contribute to stabilising the global economy. Risk factors include in particular the geopolitical situation and central banks clinging to their restrictive policies for too long.

 

What are your priorities in the fund, based on your expectations?

In anticipation of falling yields, money market instruments will likely be less relevant, although the level is elevated. Any price gains from falling yields on longer-term bonds would seem more attractive here. As the interest rate cycle in the emerging markets already appears to have come a longer way, we will also place a further focus here. The absolute yield level is also attractive for high-yield corporate bonds. We will probably reduce absolute-return funds.

ERSTE SELECT BOND DYNAMIC

Note: Depending on the performance of the investment fund, the performance of an s Fonds Plan will differ from that of a single investment (higher or lower). A loss of capital is possible in both cases.

Disclaimer

This document is an advertisement. Please refer to the prospectus of the UCITS or to the Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG of the alternative investment fund and the Key Information Document before making any final investment decisions. Unless indicated otherwise, source: Erste Asset Management GmbH. Our languages of communication are German and English.

The prospectus for UCITS (including any amendments) is published in accordance with the provisions of the InvFG 2011 in the currently amended version. Information for Investors pursuant to Art  21 AIFMG is prepared for the alternative investment funds (AIF) administered by Erste Asset Management GmbH pursuant to the provisions of the AIFMG in connection with the InvFG 2011. The fund prospectus, Information for Investors pursuant to Art  21 AIFMG, and the Key Information Document can be viewed in their latest versions at the website www.erste-am.com within the section mandatory publications  or obtained in their latest versions free of charge from the domicile of the management company and the domicile of the custodian bank. The exact date of the most recent publication of the fund prospectus, the languages in which the Key Information Document is available, and any additional locations where the documents can be obtained can be viewed on the website www.erste-am.com. A summary of investor rights is available in German and English on the website www.erste-am.com/investor-rights as well as at the domicile of the management company.

The management company can decide to revoke the arrangements it has made for the distribution of unit certificates abroad, taking into account the regulatory requirements.

Detailed information on the risks potentially associated with the investment can be found in the fund prospectus or Information for investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG of the respective fund. If the fund currency is a currency other than the investor's home currency, changes in the corresponding exchange rate may have a positive or negative impact on the value of his investment and the amount of the costs incurred in the fund - converted into his home currency.

Our analyses and conclusions are general in nature and do not take into account the individual needs of our investors in terms of earnings, taxation, and risk appetite. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of a fund.