The super election year of 2024 lies behind us. In addition to another interest rate hike by the major central banks in the USA and Europe, it brought a potentially landmark election victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election. What is in store for 2025?

In the Funds check series, the fund managers of selected funds look back on the developments of the past year and give their assessment of what to expect from the stock exchanges in 2025. (Please note: forecasts are no reliable indicator of future performance.)

Fund & Performance

ERSTE FUTURE INVEST is an actively managed, global equity fund investing in megatrends (promising future trends). Equities associated with one or more of the following trends are preferred in the selection process: health and health provision, lifestyle, technology and innovation, environment and clean energy, and emerging markets.

Note: Please note that an investment in securities entails risks in addition to the opportunities described. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Performance since start of the fund (10.10.2019). The performance is calculated in accordance with the OeKB method. The management fee as well as any performance-related remuneration is already included. The issue premium which might be applicable on purchase and as well as any individual transaction specific costs or ongoing costs that reduce earnings (e.g. account- and deposit fees) have not been taken into account in this presentation.

Commentary by fund manager Bernhard Selinger

How did the fund perform in 2024?

By the time of going to press, global equity markets had performed well in 2024. The main drivers were declines in inflation rates in Europe and the USA and, consequently, initial interest rate cuts by the ECB and the US Federal Reserve. Similarly, the latest company earnings season (Q3 2024) in Europe but especially in the USA brought more positive results than expected. In the S&P500 (an index consisting of the 500 largest companies in the USA), about 75% of companies exceeded analysts’ profit expectations. ERSTE FUTURE INVEST performed well in 2024, benefiting in particular from “technology megatrend companies” in the semiconductor and software sectors. (Please note: an investment in securities involves risks as well as opportunities.)

 

What are your expectations with regard to themes in the fund?

Megatrend “Healthcare”

Rising cost pressure in the medical sector has led to increased use of medical technology and robotics. In this fund, we are focusing on Intuitive Surgical. The US company has been a leader in the field of robot-assisted surgery systems for over 30 years. “Da Vinci” surgical robots are used in more than 5,000 hospitals worldwide, for example in the fields of thoracic surgery, gynaecology, and urology. (Please note: the company mentioned here has been selected as an example and does not represent an investment recommendation.)

Megatrend “Technology”

The widespread use of robotics and artificial intelligence across all industries (e.g. IoT – “Internet of Things”) requires ever smaller chips with higher computing power and, at the same time, the lowest possible energy consumption. The Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC is the world’s leading contract manufacturer of computer chips in terms of technology and is represented in the ERSTE FUTURE INVEST fund. The company benefits from growth in the semiconductor industry (demand for chips) and from the massively increasing complexity of the manufacturing process. (Please note: the company mentioned here has been selected as an example and does not constitute an investment recommendation.)

Megatrend “Environment”

The EU Taxonomy, as an action plan to channel capital into ecological and sustainable activities, strongly promotes the transition to a circular economy. From the fund, Kurita Water, a Japanese manufacturer of water treatment equipment and chemicals, is worth mentioning here. The company’s products reduce water consumption in the production process, for example in the steel industry and in paper and pulp production. (Please note: the company mentioned here has been selected as an example and does not constitute an investment recommendation.)

Megatrend “Lifestyle”

Global e-commerce spending continues to grow strongly, with annual growth of almost 10% expected between 2024 and 2029. The US company Mastercard, the second-largest global payment service provider for credit and debit cards for cashless payments and cash withdrawals at ATMs worldwide, will also benefit from this. (Please note: The company mentioned here has been selected as an example and does not constitute an investment recommendation.)

Megatrend “Economic transformation”

At the end of September, markets were surprised by the announcement of a huge Chinese economic package – a series of measures designed to strengthen the local economy and communities, such as low-interest loans and direct financial assistance to lower-income households. The fund holds shares in YUM China, the largest western fast food provider in China with around 15,000 restaurants – KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell. The consumer behaviour of customers is comprehensively evaluated and used for personalised suggestions at the self-service terminals. (Please note: the company mentioned here has been selected as examples and does not constitute an investment recommendation.)

ERSTE FUTURE INVEST

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This document is an advertisement. Please refer to the prospectus of the UCITS or to the Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG of the alternative investment fund and the Key Information Document before making any final investment decisions. Unless indicated otherwise, source: Erste Asset Management GmbH. The language of communication of the sales offices is German and the languages of communication of the Management Company also include English. 

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Note: You are about to purchase a product that may be difficult to understand. We recommend that you read the indicated fund documents before making an investment decision. In addition to the locations listed above, you can obtain these documents free of charge at the offices of the referring Sparkassen bank and the offices of Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG. You can also access these documents electronically at www.erste-am.com. 

N.B.: The performance scenarios listed in the key information document are based on a calculation method that is specified in an EU regulation. The future market development cannot be accurately predicted. The depicted performance scenarios merely present potential earnings, but are based on the earnings in the recent past. The actual earnings may be lower than indicated.

Our analyses and conclusions are general in nature and do not take into account the individual characteristics of our investors in terms of earnings, taxation, experience and knowledge, investment objective, financial position, capacity for loss, and risk tolerance. 

Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of a fund. Investments in securities entail risks in addition to the opportunities presented here. The value of units and their earnings can rise and fall. Changes in exchange rates can also have a positive or negative effect on the value of an investment. For this reason, you may receive less than your originally invested amount when you redeem your units. Persons who are interested in purchasing units in investment funds are advised to read the current fund prospectus(es) and the Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG, especially the risk notices they contain, before making an investment decision. If the fund currency is different than the investor’s home currency, changes in the relevant exchange rate can positively or negatively influence the value of the investment and the amount of the costs associated with the fund in the home currency.

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It is expressly noted that this communication does not provide any investment recommendations, but only expresses our current market assessment. Thus, this communication is not a substitute for investment advice, does not take into account the legal regulations aimed at promoting the independence of financial analyses, and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial analyses.

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Subject to misprints and errors.