The super election year of 2024 lies behind us. In addition to another interest rate hike by the major central banks in the USA and Europe, it brought a potentially landmark election victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election. What is in store for 2025?

In the Funds check series, the fund managers of selected funds look back on the developments of the past year and give their assessment of what to expect from the stock exchanges in 2025. (Please note: forecasts are no reliable indicator of future performance.)

Fund & Performance

ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX is an actively managed, global mixed fund that invests in selected investment themes. The fund offers investors a broadly diversified mix of different asset classes such as equities, bonds, listed private markets, commodities and currencies. In the course of stock selection, priority is given to stocks that are assigned to one or more of the following themes: Environment & Sustainability, Demographics, Digitalization and Global Transformation. In addition, medium-term opportunities from other themes may also be used.

Note: Please note that an investment in securities entails risks in addition to the opportunities described. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Performance since start of the fund (3.6.2024). The performance is calculated in accordance with the OeKB method. The management fee as well as any performance-related remuneration is already included. The issue premium which might be applicable on purchase and as well as any individual transaction specific costs or ongoing costs that reduce earnings (e.g. account- and deposit fees) have not been taken into account in this presentation.

Commentary by fund manager Gerhard Beulig

How did the fund perform in 2024?

The fund delivered a good performance in the first months since its launch on 3 June and posted gains of 5.6% as of 31 December 2024, with the equity portion contributing significantly.

 

What was the focus of the fund in 2024?

The focus was on promising thematic investments in equities, such as digitalisation, health, demographic development in general and, among other things, the energy sector (Please note: an investment in securities involves risks as well as opportunities).

In the bond sector, we made investments mainly in corporate bonds with good to excellent credit ratings, including those in the higher rating segments of high-yields. In addition, we added a noticeable volume of emerging markets bonds, including those in local currencies for example from Mexico or South Africa.

 

What does the fund management team expect for 2025 in terms of global economy and trends?

For 2025, we expect a slightly weaker but still positive growth momentum for the US economy, i.e. a so-called soft landing. The other major economic blocs will see only slight economic growth. We expect inflation to continue to ease, although by its very nature the progress will be less significant than in the previous year. There is also the risk of stubborn inflation, particularly if the USA were to pursue a very expansionary fiscal policy.

We expect the central banks to continue lowering their interest rates, with the exception of Japan. However, from today’s perspective, the yields on long(er)-term bonds will not fall to the same extent, i.e. we expect yield curves to steepen. This environment will continue to support the equity markets, but a year as good as 2024 is unlikely to come through again. Government budget deficits are a risk factor; if they continue to widen sharply, this development could result in higher yields.

 

What are your priorities in the fund, based on your expectations?

We envisage continued support for the equity markets, although we do not expect the upward trend to be as strong as in 2024. In our view, the performance will broaden and not just depend on the large US technology companies.

The trends towards improvements in infrastructure, energy, and currently cheap cyclical equities will gain in importance in addition to long-term topics such as digitalisation and demographic change (Please note: forecasts are no reliable indicator of future performance). In the bond segment, the focus remains on corporate bonds, as the environment for the high-yield segment remains supportive. We will continue to take advantage of impromptu opportunities.

Disclaimer of the management company Erste Asset Management GmbH and its sales agent Erste Bank Group

This document is an advertisement. Please refer to the prospectus of the UCITS or to the Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG of the alternative investment fund and the Key Information Document before making any final investment decisions. Unless indicated otherwise, source: Erste Asset Management GmbH. The language of communication of the sales offices is German and the languages of communication of the Management Company also include English. 

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The currently valid versions of the prospectus, the Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG, and the key information document can be found on the website www.erste-am.com under “Mandatory publications” and can be obtained free of charge by interested investors at the offices of the Management Company and at the offices of the depositary bank. The exact date of the most recent publication of the prospectus, the languages in which the key information document is available, and any other locations where the documents can be obtained are indicated on the website www.erste-am.com. A summary of the investor rights is available in German and English on the website www.erste-am.com/investor-rights and can also be obtained from the Management Company.

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Note: You are about to purchase a product that may be difficult to understand. We recommend that you read the indicated fund documents before making an investment decision. In addition to the locations listed above, you can obtain these documents free of charge at the offices of the referring Sparkassen bank and the offices of Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG. You can also access these documents electronically at www.erste-am.com

N.B.: The performance scenarios listed in the key information document are based on a calculation method that is specified in an EU regulation. The future market development cannot be accurately predicted. The depicted performance scenarios merely present potential earnings, but are based on the earnings in the recent past. The actual earnings may be lower than indicated.

Our analyses and conclusions are general in nature and do not take into account the individual characteristics of our investors in terms of earnings, taxation, experience and knowledge, investment objective, financial position, capacity for loss, and risk tolerance. 

Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of a fund. Investments in securities entail risks in addition to the opportunities presented here. The value of units and their earnings can rise and fall. Changes in exchange rates can also have a positive or negative effect on the value of an investment. For this reason, you may receive less than your originally invested amount when you redeem your units. Persons who are interested in purchasing units in investment funds are advised to read the current fund prospectus(es) and the Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG, especially the risk notices they contain, before making an investment decision. If the fund currency is different than the investor’s home currency, changes in the relevant exchange rate can positively or negatively influence the value of the investment and the amount of the costs associated with the fund in the home currency.

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Please consult the corresponding information in the fund prospectus and the Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG for restrictions on the sale of the fund to American or Russian citizens. 

It is expressly noted that this communication does not provide any investment recommendations, but only expresses our current market assessment. Thus, this communication is not a substitute for investment advice, does not take into account the legal regulations aimed at promoting the independence of financial analyses, and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial analyses.

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Subject to misprints and errors.