Discussions regarding customs tariffs and geopolitical tensions were the main focus in the first six months of the year on the financial markets. Where are the markets headed in the second half of 2025?
In our Funds check series, fund managers from selected funds look back on the past year's performance and give their assessment of what we can expect for the rest of the year. (Please note that forecasts are no reliable indicator of future performance and that investing in securities involves risks as well as opportunities.)
Summary
- The United States remains the economic frontrunner, but its lead over Europe and Asia is likely to narrow as a result of the Trump administration's trade policy.
- We expect that, barring a selective resurgence of the trade conflict, the coming months will be free from major negative surprises.
Fund manager Christian Süttinger
(c) Tim Dornaus
Fund & Performance
ERSTE BEST OF WORLD is a fund of funds that invests in global equity funds. The funds are selected on the basis of both qualitative and quantitative criteria. A broad diversification of investment styles and an overall balanced risk-return ratio are decisive for the weighting of the funds. The maximum weighting of a subfund is 20%.
Note: Please note that an investment in securities entails risks in addition to the opportunities described. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The performance is calculated in accordance with the OeKB method. The management fee as well as any performance-related remuneration is already included. The issue premium which might be applicable on purchase and as well as any individual transaction specific costs or ongoing costs that reduce earnings (e.g. account- and deposit fees) have not been taken into account in this presentation.
Commentary by fund manager Christian Süttinger
How did the fund perform in the first half of 2025?
ERSTE BEST OF WORLD has lost 5.3% in the year to date (as of 2 July 2025), mainly because of the global tariff dispute in April and the US dollar losing ground against the euro.
What were the fund’s main areas of focus in the first half of 2025?
Large-caps account for the most significant share of the portfolio, contributing to stability when markets are nervous.
What are the expectations of your fund management team with regard to global economic development and trends, among other things, for the second half?
On what has been dubbed “Liberation Day,” the US government announced massive tariff barriers, particularly against China and Europe. The resulting losses in company earnings triggered rapid equity market declines in April. Conversely, May brought an easing of the potential trade war and a stabilisation of share prices. We expect that, regardless of isolated flare-ups in the conflict, we will now see a few months without any major negative surprises – the reason being that the performance of the equity markets is very important to the US government, as a significant percentage of the population is invested in equities in one way or another. Also, there has been discussion for some time about the onset of a recession in the USA, either as a delayed consequence of the interest rate hikes implemented at the time to combat inflation or as a result of the current US trade policy; but we still have no concrete signs or indicators of this.
What are your priorities in the fund, based on your expectations?
Should the global economic situation stabilise permanently, additional investments in small- and mid-caps and adjustments to growth investments would be within the realm of possibilities.
Please note: investing in securities involves risks as well as opportunities.
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