Discussions regarding customs tariffs and geopolitical tensions were the main focus in the first six months of the year on the financial markets. Where are the markets headed in the second half of 2025?

In our Funds check series, fund managers from selected funds look back on the past year's performance and give their assessment of what we can expect for the rest of the year. (Please note that forecasts are no reliable indicator of future performance and that investing in securities involves risks as well as opportunities.)

Summary

  • ERSTE FUTURE INVEST performed largely in line with the global market as a whole in the first half of 2025.
  • A particular focus was on European equities, which offered attractive potential again after a period of weaker performance.
  • Based on the expected global developments, the fund will continue to focus on structural growth themes in the second half of the year.
  • European equities remain a key component, complemented by selective investments in Asia. More defensive themes such as healthcare and retirement provision are also expected to contribute to the stability of the portfolio.

Fund manager Bernhard Selinger
(c) Stephan Huger

Fund & Performance

ERSTE FUTURE INVEST is an actively managed, global equity fund investing in megatrends (promising future trends). Equities associated with one or more of the following trends are preferred in the selection process: health and health provision, lifestyle, technology and innovation, environment and clean energy, and emerging markets.

Note: Please note that an investment in securities entails risks in addition to the opportunities described. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Performance since start of the fund (10.10.2019). The performance is calculated in accordance with the OeKB method. The management fee as well as any performance-related remuneration is already included. The issue premium which might be applicable on purchase and as well as any individual transaction specific costs or ongoing costs that reduce earnings (e.g. account- and deposit fees) have not been taken into account in this presentation.

Commentary by fund manager Bernhard Selinger

How did the fund perform in that environment?

ERSTE FUTURE INVEST performed largely in line with the global market as a whole in the first half of 2025. After a positive start to the year, geopolitical tensions – particularly Trump's policies – and macroeconomic uncertainties led to increased volatility. April saw noticeable losses on the markets, but the fund management team took advantage of this to make targeted purchases and increase existing positions. The stabilisation of the European economy and the first signs of an economic recovery also played a role. Overall, the fund performed robustly and benefited from active management, which enabled it to respond flexibly to market changes and take advantage of market opportunities.

 

What were the fund’s main areas of focus in the first half of 2025?

A particular focus was on European equities, which offered attractive potential again after a period of weaker performance. Accordingly, we added European equities to the portfolio in a targeted manner. At the same time, we cut the weighting in US equities slightly in order to cope with the prevailing uncertainty and minimise valuation risks. We also selectively included Asian markets, and they performed solidly.  We took profits on companies that had seen a strong performance. We pursued the structural growth trends of technology & digitalisation and environment & clean energy (N.B. urgently needed investments in infrastructure) with two acquisitions in Europe.

 

What are the expectations of your fund management team with regard to global economic development and trends, among other things, for the second half?

The fund management team expects uncertainty to persist in the second half of 2025. Accordingly, volatility on global equity markets is likely to remain elevated. Inflation rates are trending lower in many industrialised countries, giving central banks room for manoeuvre to pursue a more cautious interest rate policy. Potential interest rate cuts could have a supportive effect on equity prices. At the same time, geopolitical risks – such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea and the US presidential administration – remain significant sources of uncertainty.

Technological innovations, particularly in the areas of artificial intelligence, digitalisation, and green transformation, remain key growth drivers. A possible stabilisation of the Chinese economy could also provide positive momentum. The fund management team expects a differentiated market environment with varying developments at regional and sectoral level. In this context, an active management approach is considered crucial in order to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.

 

What are your priorities in the fund, based on your expectations?

Based on expected global developments, the fund will continue to focus on structural growth themes in the second half of the year. These include, in particular, companies from the above-mentioned sectors. European equities remain a core component, complemented by selective investments in Asia. More defensive themes such as healthcare and retirement provision are also expected to contribute to the stability of the portfolio. The fund management team will continue to closely monitor economic developments in order to respond flexibly to macroeconomic changes. The aim is to achieve sustainable performance through a balanced mix of growth opportunities and stability, even in a market environment that remains challenging.

 

Please note: investing in securities involves risks as well as opportunities.

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