Discussions regarding customs tariffs and geopolitical tensions were the main focus in the first six months of the year on the financial markets. Where are the markets headed in the second half of 2025?
In our Funds check series, fund managers from selected funds look back on the past year's performance and give their assessment of what we can expect for the rest of the year. (Please note that forecasts are no reliable indicator of future performance and that investing in securities involves risks as well as opportunities.)
Summary
- Review: the US tariff policy led to price fluctuations and a weaker US dollar; focus for the first half of the year: relatively strong weighting of European equities, with a focus on technology, energy, industry, and banking; in the bond segment, focus on investment-grade corporate bonds, complemented by high-yield and emerging markets bonds.
- Market expectations: political uncertainty and associated higher volatility on the capital markets will remain in place; positive measures such as investment programmes in Europe; possible interest rate cuts in the USA and the Eurozone.
- Focus: equities continue to dominate; focus on AI, energy, healthcare, and infrastructure; bond segment with focus on corporate bonds, complemented by private equity and specialised bond segments.
Fund manager Gerhard Beulig
(c) Samuel Kreuz
Fund & Performance
ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX is an actively managed, global mixed fund that invests in selected investment themes. The fund offers investors a broadly diversified mix of different asset classes such as equities, bonds, listed private markets, commodities and currencies. In the course of stock selection, priority is given to stocks that are assigned to one or more of the following themes: Environment & Sustainability, Demographics, Digitalization and Global Transformation. In addition, medium-term opportunities from other themes may also be used.
Note: Please note that an investment in securities entails risks in addition to the opportunities described. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Performance since start of the fund (3.6.2024). The performance is calculated in accordance with the OeKB method. The management fee as well as any performance-related remuneration is already included. The issue premium which might be applicable on purchase and as well as any individual transaction specific costs or ongoing costs that reduce earnings (e.g. account- and deposit fees) have not been taken into account in this presentation.
Commentary by fund manager Gerhard Beulig
How did the fund perform in the first half of 2025?
The fund recorded gains of about 2% in the first half of the year. Despite the turbulent developments on the equity markets from April onwards and the weakness of the US dollar, the subsequent recovery on the equity markets was reflected in the fund's performance.
What were the fund’s main areas of focus in the first half of 2025?
The focus was mainly on equities, with a relatively strong weighting in Europe. In addition to Europe's good performance, this came with the added advantage of the weakness of the US dollar having only a minor impact. We selected the equities on the basis of their long-term potential, which would in turn hinge on their business model. The majority ended up being from the technology, energy, commodities, and industrial sectors, but we also included banks. In the bond segment, we maintained a short to medium duration and, in addition to investment-grade corporate bonds, we also made investments in selected high-yield issues and emerging markets.
What are the expectations of your fund management team with regard to global economic development and trends, among other things, for the second half?
Political uncertainty is likely to remain and continue to cause volatility. We expect trade conflicts to recede into the background after a while and positive measures (deregulation, tax cuts, investment programmes in Europe) to offset the negative effects of higher tariffs. A further interest rate cut in the Eurozone in the second half of the year or several interest rate cuts in the USA in autumn could provide tailwinds.
What are your priorities in the fund, based on your expectations?
From today's perspective, equities will account for the majority of the portfolio. AI, energy, companies benefiting from the investment programme in Germany, and healthcare will remain some of the dominant industry trends. Corporate bonds will continue to make up the majority of the fixed income segment. Long-term themes such as private equity companies or specific fixed income segments will be blended in as well.
Please note: investing in securities involves risks as well as opportunities.
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