Erste Asset Management: chances of solid returns intact for 2025
- Higher price fluctuations (i.e. volatility) due to Trumponomics and global crises
- Return opportunities for shares, bonds, and precious metals (e.g. gold) remain intact
- New high for assets under management: EUR 84bn; and 1.5mn fund savings plans (as of 30 October 2024)
- · Erste AM relies on professionally managed equity, bond, and mixed funds
- Securities harbour both opportunities and risks
The US election in 2024 is causing movement in the financial markets. Trump’s clear victory gave a boost to US equities and crypto assets (such as Bitcoin) in particular, and the US dollar also showed relative strength against the euro. At this point in time, investors are turning their attention to the protectionist measures announced by the future Trump administration and the impact on the global economy and financial markets.
Erste AM sees Janus-faced development
Austria's leading capital investment company, Erste Asset Management, expects a two-track development next year: the US economy is likely to continue to grow solidly, whereas the economy in Europe will develop cautiously and, indeed, some countries, such as Germany or Austria, will be on the brink of a recession, according to Chief Investment Officer Gerold Permoser at the press conference on the 2025 outlook.
“If the tax cuts announced by US President Trump are implemented, share prices are likely to rise yet again due to the effects on corporate earnings.” But for Permoser, there is a catch: such a policy entails the risk of growing national debt. Investors might demand a higher premium for holding US Treasury bonds due to the rising risk, which would drive yields up and limit the Fed’s room for manoeuvre with regard to further interest rate cuts. “The period of interest rate cuts could soon be over, which in turn could lead to disappointment,” said Erste AM Chief Investment Officer Permoser.
Increased volatility on the back of “Trumponomics”
Also, the protectionist measures mentioned by the President-elect could impact the global economy. Trump has announced import duties of up to 60% on Chinese goods and plans to implement punitive tariffs of 25% on all goods from Mexico and Canada shortly after taking office. If these announcements were to be executed, they could trigger a spiral of import duties in Europe and China, too, and thus lead to an increase in the price of goods and a decline in exports, which Europe in particular would feel painfully. “We therefore have to expect higher volatility in the markets due to Trumponomics,” says Permoser.
Not abandoning the sustainable path
Permoser is less concerned about the new US administration abandoning the climate targets: “This won’t be as bad as it sounds now." Although the USA will probably withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and try to bring the chemical, steel, and cement industries back home, not even someone like Trump would be able to ignore the technological achievements in the field of renewable energies. The anti-climate wave is exaggerated, because 90% of green jobs in the USA were created in Republican-dominated states. The fear of more oil production is unfounded, especially since it follows the law of supply and demand and not political polemics. 90% of all sustainable investments is made in Europe, anyway, says Permoser.
Permoser regards the outlook for the global equity and bond markets as overall intact. “We may see less spectacular gains – but gains we should see.” The numerous risks at the political level are offset by positive factors such as the continued growth of the global economy, falling key-lending rates, and stimuli from countries such as China. On the equity markets, the investors’ attention will be focused on dividends, real earnings, inflation, and valuations. “If companies continue to report profit growth and pay dividends, prices are going to reflect this.” Please note: forecasts are no reliable indicator of future performance.
„The chances of solid investment returns in 2025 are intact.“
Gerold Permoser, Chief Investment Officer Erste Asset Management
This results in the following fund topics for Erste AM for the year 2025: in terms of equity funds, we are looking at ERSTE RESPONSIBLE STOCK GLOBAL (ISIN: AT0000646799), a global equity fund with a focus on sustainably oriented companies that is suitable as a basic investment. In the bond fund segment, Erste AM is putting forward ERSTE BOND CORPORATE PLUS (ISIN: AT0000A1PKM0), a corporate bond fund that invests in subordinated bonds with investment-grade ratings.
Other funds in focus include the newly launched ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX (ISIN: AT0000A3BMJ8), a global multi-asset fund that invests in long-term trends while also taking advantage of short- and medium-term opportunities; and ERSTE REAL ASSETS (ISIN: AT0000A1PKM0), which invests in equities as well as commodities and precious metals such as gold.
Please note that investing in securities involves risks as well as opportunities.
Erste AM funds: good performance and record volume
Despite the subdued economic development outside the USA and geopolitical uncertainties, 2024 was an above-average year for investment fund investors. The best performance in the year to date came from equity funds focusing on US and technology shares. ERSTE EQUITY RESEARCH came in at the top of the list; the fund is based on the recommendations of Erste Group Research and gained about 25% (source: selected mutual funds of Erste Asset Management, data as of 26 November 2024). Bond funds generated return rates of up to almost 10%, with both corporate bond funds and ERSTE BOND CHINA performing impressively. The performance of many mixed funds was also well above the long-term average: ERSTE REAL ASSETS, which is geared towards real assets (with about a third invested in gold), has even generated a plus of almost 20% in the year to date.
Please note that investing in securities involves risks as well as the aforementioned opportunities.
Erste AM volumes setting new records due to positive performance and capital inflows
As a result of the positive performance of the funds, but also thanks to net inflows of about EUR 2bn across the entire group, the assets managed by Erste Asset Management rose by 7.8% to a new record of EUR 84bn (source: own data, data as of 30 October 2020). At a share of about 40% of total assets, mixed funds are the most important asset class at Erste AM, followed by bonds at about 30%, equities at about 22% and real estate at about 6%. The number of fund-based savings plans also experienced dynamic growth and was up by 17.4% to 1.55 million across the entire group.
The company with the second-highest volume after Erste AM in Austria (EUR 55.2bn) is the Czech subsidiary with EUR 18.5bn in assets under management. It managed to expand assets under management by 12.5%. The companies in Croatia and Romania also recorded strong growth, with the volume in Croatia rising by 69% from a comparatively low level and the volume in Romania increasing by 20%. Erste AM is the market leader in Austria, Romania, and the Czech Republic.
30% of Erste AM’s fund volume is sustainable
Ethical, social, and sustainable criteria are becoming increasingly important for mutual fund, institutional, and special fund investors. The volume of sustainable funds classified under Articles 6, 8 and 9 of the EU Disclosure Regulation has increased by EUR 7.8bn to EUR 25.2bn in the year to date, which corresponds to an increase of almost 45%. Sustainable investments account for 30% of Erste AM’s total assets under management (own data, as of 30 October 2024).
Please note that investing in securities involves risks as well as the aforementioned opportunities.
Heinz Bednar, CEO of Erste AM, taking stock: “Demand for investment funds and asset management solutions remained encouragingly high, although the economic environment was and remains challenging. Those who did not allow themselves to be unsettled by the sentiment and the news and seized the opportunities were rewarded with returns that do not materialise every year.”
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About us
Erste Asset Management GmbH (Erste AM) is an international asset management company with a strong position in Central and Eastern Europe. Erste Asset Management is backed by the financial strength of Erste Group Bank AG (Erste Group). At its locations in Austria, Germany, Croatia, Romania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, Erste AM manages assets of EUR 84.0bn (as of 30 October 2024).
Rückfragen an:
Erste Asset Management | Communications & Digital Marketing, Am Belvedere 1, 1100 Wien
Paul Severin, Tel. +43 (0)50 100 19982, E-Mail: paul.severin@erste-am.com
Dieter Kerschbaum, Tel. +43 (0)50 100 19858, E-Mail: dieter.kerschbaum@erste-am.com
Philipp Marchhart, Tel. +43 (0)50 100 19854, E-Mail: philipp.marchhart@erste-am.com
Risk notes
Legal note: Prognoses are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Please note that investments in securities entail risks in addition to the opportunities described.
ERSTE RESPONSIBLE STOCK GLOBAL
ERSTE BOND CORPORATE PLUS
ERSTE OPPORTUNITIES MIX
ERSTE REAL ASSETS
ERSTE EQUITY RESEARCH
ERSTE BOND CHINA
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