In the Fund Check series, fund managers of selected funds look back on developments over the past year and give their assessment of what we can expect in 2026. (Note: Prognoses are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Please note that investing in securities involves risks as well as opportunities.)

Summary

  • Strong performance of the equity markets in 2025: the focus was primarily on technology equities, which became the dominant sector thanks to investments in AI.
  • The US Federal Reserve cut its interest rates repeatedly.
  • The new government in the USA brought about comprehensive political changes. The introduction and extension of tariffs led to uncertainty and significant price fluctuations on the equity markets.
  • We maintain a positive outlook for the equity markets in 2026.

Note: Please note that an investment in securities entails risks in addition to the opportunities described.

Fund manager Bernhard Ruttenstorfer
(c) Stephan Huger

Fund & Performance

The ERSTE STOCK GLOBAL invests in selected companies worldwide. The fund's investment process is based on fundamental business analysis. The selection of stocks takes place with a focus on high-quality growth companies without restrictions on size, industry affiliation and location. A concentrated portfolio is striven for as part of the portfolio construction process. Furthermore, the individual stocks are weighted independently of the market capitalization of the respective companies. 

Note: Please note that an investment in securities entails risks in addition to the opportunities described. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The performance is calculated in accordance with the OeKB method. The management fee as well as any performance-related remuneration is already included. The issue premium which might be applicable on purchase and as well as any individual transaction specific costs or ongoing costs that reduce earnings (e.g. account- and deposit fees) have not been taken into account in this presentation.

Commentary by fund manager Bernhard Ruttenstorfer

Review 2025

The US equity markets showed remarkable resilience in 2025, with the S&P 500's overall performance of 18.1% (data as of ...) reflecting investors' continued confidence despite several headwinds. The sectors showed the following pattern: technology emerged as the dominant sector, driven by continued AI investment; healthcare and financials also remained in demand on the equity market; due to low oil and gas prices, energy shares underperformed the broader market.

The year was marked by several key developments: technology shares continued to dominate, despite concerns about a possible bubble emerging around mid-year. Markets showed periodic shifts between growth and value styles throughout the year, with value shares performing particularly well in the final months. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy underwent significant changes in 2025. After keeping interest rates stable in the first half of the year, the Fed cut rates twice: the first cut occurred in September, and the second one of the year was implemented in October during the US government shutdown. Labour market conditions showed mixed signals throughout 2025.

Please note: Past performance is no reliable indicator of the future value development of the fund.

President Trump's return to office brought sweeping policy changes that significantly impacted markets: the introduction of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on 4 March, additional 10% taxes on Chinese imports, a reciprocal tariff framework for several trading partners, and a 25% tariff on car imports introduced at the end of March. However, following volatile trade announcements, trade tensions eased.

The 2025 quarterly season showed mixed but overall positive corporate performance. Key factors included: strong investment in cloud and AI. Continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Some concerns about the sustainability of growth rates caused uncertainty. Financial sector: banks faced challenges in terms of credit quality. The interest rate environment created both opportunities and risks. However, consumers showed resilience in the face of economic uncertainty. The impact of tariffs was largely shared among various parties: exporters, retailers, and consumers. We remained fully invested in global equities throughout the year, reflecting our positive view of economic developments. As before, we maintained our strategy of favouring companies with strong revenue growth and quality attributes such as a healthy balance sheet, high cash flow, and growing EPS figures.

 

Outlook 2026

We maintain our positive outlook for 2026. In our view, global growth should remain supportive, inflation should remain under control, the impact of US tariffs should diminish, and companies could achieve greater savings through lower wage increases and AI efficiency gains. Falling interest rates from the US Federal Reserve are also beneficial for equities.

Micro and macro data confirm the viability of our holdings in financial, technology, and communications services, which are our preferred sectors. We are more hesitant about the energy, consumer goods, and utilities sectors, as we do not forecast strong price increases. Consumer staples remain under pressure, and the trend towards private labels continues.

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Please note: Investments in securities entail risks in addition to the opportunities presented here. The value of units and their earnings can rise and fall. Changes in exchange rates can also have a positive or negative effect on the value of an investment. For this reason, you may receive less than your originally invested amount when you redeem your units. Persons who are interested in purchasing units in investment funds are advised to read the current fund prospectus(es) and the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG, especially the risk notices they contain, before making an investment decision. If the fund currency is different than the investor’s home currency, changes in the relevant exchange rate can positively or negatively influence the value of the investment and the amount of the costs associated with the fund in the home currency.

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